German Researchers Prove Increased Immigration Does Not Lead to Higher Crime Rates

German researchers have found that the increase in immigrants in Germany, whether illegal, asylum seekers, or those entering the country legally to join the workforce, does not lead to a rise in crime rates. This is according to a study by the Munich Institute for Economic Research (Ifo) published on Tuesday. The analysis challenges the central theme of the German election campaign for this Sunday's elections, which focuses on measures to curb the entry of undocumented individuals following several Islamist attacks in recent months.

"We found no relationship between the growing number of foreigners in a district and the local crime rate," highlights the analysis conducted by Ifo based on police crime statistics by district from 2018 to 2023. Jan Victor Alipour, one of the study's authors, emphasized that this statement also holds true for refugees and noted that other international studies have shown that migration and refugees do not systematically influence crime in host countries.

In their analysis, the researchers considered the fact that immigrants appear in crime statistics more frequently than their proportion in the population would suggest. The higher rate is attributed to factors independent of origin. Undocumented individuals are more likely to move to urban centers with structurally higher crime rates, even among Germans. However, the fact that foreigners are on average younger and more often male plays a lesser role.

"When these factors are considered, there is no statistical correlation between the regional proportion of foreigners and the crime rate," states Joop Adema, an Ifo scientist. Therefore, immigrants or those seeking protection are no more likely to commit crimes than demographically similar German residents. The researchers also examined particularly serious crimes, such as homicides or sexual assaults. In this case too, the study found no statistical correlation with an increasing proportion of immigrants.

The researchers also describe integration into the labor market as an important preventive measure against crime. Sensible measures include easier recognition of foreign qualifications and the distribution of asylum seekers based on regional labor demand. "In this way, immigrants would have quicker legal opportunities to earn income, which would prevent crime. Additionally, labor demand could be met more selectively," Alipour concluded.